What will future wars be like

In contrast to the focus of Western states on discretionary operations centred on counterinsurgency, stabilisation, and humanitarian intervention, conventional military force has remained a central focus of these states.

For example, there is a long tradition of rigorous military strategic debate in Russia, as well as an emphasis on the systematic, scientific study of the theoretical foundations of war and conflict. Forecasting the future character of war is an enduring concern in the writings of serving or retired military officers in open publications intended for an internal Russian audience.

Many such writings focus on the characteristics of 21 st century conflict and the security threats facing Russia, particularly those that come from the US. Thus, in attempting to predict the future character of war and conflict, it is vital to understand that our adversaries are going through a similar process of observation and assessment. The lessons learnt by others from your own experience may not be the lessons we consider to be the most important, or are comfortable with, but if we fail to heed them we may find ourselves unable to effectively counter adversaries.

The experiences of individual states foster different visions of future conflict and how states envisage military force being used, either by themselves or potential adversaries. This diversity stresses the fundamental difficulties of predicting the precise nature of the next war or future conflict. While states take different routes in attempting to manage this inherent unpredictability, they all seek to conduct a thorough analysis of conflicts both past and present to understand and predict how countries will fight wars in the future.

CC0 public domain via Pexels. Dr German is guest editor of the International Affairs special issue, Re-visioning war and the state in the twenty-first century. If the communication equipment, radars, remote fire mechanism and controls are hacked or blocked, the war is already tilted in favor of the enemy. There are Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition SCADA , a system of software and hardware elements that allows the military units to control the firing mechanism locally or at remote locations, when interrupted will cause enormous failure of the war efforts.

The research and development is in the advanced stage in developing the Quantum Computing, once perfected it would perhaps provide considerable relief to the users of the cyber world. Conclusion The world is moving fast and there are other worrying trends such as the use of Crypto currency, which is allowing terrorists to transfer funds or pay for acquisition of weapons without a trace of who paid whom without using the well-established financial institutions like the Banks.

Space based satellites and navigation setup are both useful as well as vulnerable and will play an important role in the future war. Today the technology is no more evolutionary from one version to another but it is leaping ahead, as Peter Warren Singer, a Cyber expert mentioned recently.

Disruptive technologies are changing the world rapidly. Good news is that ethical questions are being debated in San Francisco, the AI capital of the world, as to how far the technology should be allowed to be autonomous and whether the software designers and engineers need to have a code of conduct.

But the day is not very far off when we see a new type of war clouds engulf us. A beginning is made, only the future will reveal how many of these trends will further change the shape of the next world war. The author has served in the Government at various levels and has served the Indian Army for more than three decades. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online.

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. Financial Express is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel and stay updated with the latest Biz news and updates. Related News. Dow 30 closes above for first time in years — Know how to invest in index stocks. Stock Market. How fintechs, banks, govt can reduce lending cost to MSMEs, enhance credit accessibility. Gold is becoming poor man's crypto, says Goldman Sachs' head of Energy Research. Food, grocery, restaurant sectors help India's retail market finally cross pre-Covid sales level.

GST officers unearth Rs 34 crore input tax credit fraud. Taxpayers can now access new I-T annual info statement on e-filing portal. Switch to Hindi Edition. Companies, Stock Quotes. Next Stories. The list of U. China's growing influence likely will alter the list of U. In Europe, traditional U. Location of U. Future conflicts will probably stem from four basic archetypes, namely counterterrorism, gray-zone conflicts, asymmetric fights, and high-end fights Four overarching trends could shape when and why the United States might go to war U.

The rise of strongmen across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East could decrease checks and balances and create incentives for future conflict. As American adversaries become more assertive and push up against U. External forces could generate conflict, such as accidents and inadvertent escalation, a crisis resulting from climate change, or conflict over scarce resources.

Future conflicts will likely place a premium on being able to operate at range. Staying outside adversaries' missile ranges and basing from afar both could be important factors, and the U. The United States should invest in increasing military precision to avoid the legal and political backlash that comes with civilian casualties. All branches of the military will need to enhance their information warfare capabilities, especially for gray-zone operations. Because of the trend toward greater use of artificial intelligence, the military will need to invest in automation.

Related Products. Air Force May 11, Raphael S. Air Force May 11, Forrest E. Air Force May 11, Howard J. Air Force and the Joint Force. Morgan, Ashley L.